Natural Prices Are Falling Fast and Nobody's Talking About It

Natural diamond prices dropped 6.4% this week, pushing the 30 day decline to 9.5%. Lab-grown diamonds moved the other way entirely, climbing 5.6% in seven days. We're tracking over 23 million diamonds across 110+ retailers, and the divergence between these two markets hasn't been this sharp in months.

Two markets pulling apart

The average natural diamond on the market sits at $6,951. The average lab-grown? $1,328. That gap is well documented. What's new is the direction of travel: naturals are accelerating downward while lab-grown stones have found a floor and started pushing up.

Over 30 days, lab-grown prices are essentially flat (up 0.14%), which sounds unremarkable until you remember that lab-grown pricing was in freefall for most of 2025. A 5.6% weekly gain on top of stability is the first real sign of pricing power returning to that side of the market. Whether it holds through May is the question.

Natural diamonds, on the other hand, are under genuine pressure. A 9.5% decline over 30 days isn't a blip. And certain categories got hit far harder than that.

The natural categories getting hammered

Not all natural diamonds fell equally. Some corrections border on alarming.

Category	7 Day Change	30 Day Change	Median $/ct
Round 0.30 to 0.49ct, N+, I clarity	-82.6%	-30.9%	$1,158
Pear 2.50 to 2.99ct, F to G, I clarity	-48.7%	-49.4%	$5,536
Pear 5.00 to 9.99ct, J to K, I clarity	-48.4%	-47.7%	$7,531
Cushion 0.30 to 0.49ct, F to G, I clarity	-46.0%	-47.2%	$1,109
Pear 4.00 to 4.99ct, D to E, I clarity	-42.7%	-36.4%	$13,976

That first line is striking. Natural round brilliants in the 0.30 to 0.49ct range with N+ colour and I clarity lost 82.6% of their per carat value in a single week. These are lower quality stones, granted, but a drop that severe suggests either a supply dump or a wholesale repricing event. Possibly both.

Pear shapes are having a rough month across the board. Three of the five biggest declines are pears, spanning everything from 2.5ct to nearly 10ct. If you've been eyeing a natural pear in these ranges, the discounting is real, but don't assume the floor is in. The 30 day trend for most of these categories is still firmly negative.

The cushion drop is worth flagging for budget-conscious buyers. Small natural cushions with decent colour (F to G) are now sitting around $1,109 per carat. That's approaching territory where natural becomes surprisingly competitive with lab-grown in the same spec.

Lab-grown's quiet rally

While naturals slid, several lab-grown categories surged. The biggest mover was lab-grown oval in the 1.00 to 1.24ct range, J to K colour, I clarity, which jumped 84.5% in seven days. That's an enormous weekly move, and it comes with a 43.6% gain over 30 days too.

Lab-grown round brilliants in the 0.20 to 0.29ct range (D to E colour, I clarity) also popped 53.8% this week. Melee and small accent stones don't usually make headlines, but that kind of move in entry level product suggests tightening supply or a manufacturer repricing.

Natural radiants in the 0.30 to 0.49ct range (N+ colour, I clarity) climbed 41.0% as well. Not every riser was lab-grown. But the broader lab-grown market averaged a 5.6% weekly gain across all categories. That's not a single category distorting the average; it's broadly based. Lab-grown producers seem to have found a price floor they're willing to defend, and buyers are responding.

How wide is the gap right now?

The price difference between natural and lab-grown varies dramatically by shape. Here's what the current data shows across every major cut:

Shape	Avg Natural Price	Avg Lab-Grown Price	Gap
Marquise	$7,488	$1,091	85.4%
Radiant	$7,343	$1,158	84.2%
Cushion	$7,205	$1,161	83.9%
Baguette	$3,520	$596	83.1%
Asscher	$6,485	$1,099	83.0%
Pear	$8,244	$1,410	82.9%
Heart	$6,591	$1,145	82.6%
Trillion	$4,361	$782	82.1%
Emerald	$7,262	$1,362	81.2%
Oval	$7,487	$1,482	80.2%
Round	$8,251	$2,132	74.2%
Princess	$4,361	$1,224	71.9%

Marquise cuts carry the widest gap at 85.4%. If you want a natural marquise, you're paying roughly 6.9 times what you'd pay for the lab-grown equivalent. Princess and round cuts carry the narrowest gaps (71.9% and 74.2%), partly because lab-grown production has always favoured these shapes, keeping lab-grown prices relatively higher through competition.

For buyers who are genuinely indifferent between natural and lab-grown, the shape you choose matters enormously. A lab-grown marquise at $1,091 average versus a natural at $7,488 is one of the most lopsided value propositions in the market right now.

Supply is flooding certain categories

New inventory tells a story that price data alone can't. Lab-grown round brilliants in the 0.30 to 0.49ct range saw supply jump 511.6% this week. Natural round 1.00 to 1.24ct listings rose 418.6%. Natural round 1.50 to 1.99ct jumped 225.4%. These are massive increases in available stock.

The natural round supply surge in the 1.00 to 1.24ct and 1.50 to 1.99ct ranges is particularly relevant for engagement ring buyers. More inventory typically means more competition among sellers and, eventually, downward pressure on prices. If natural round prices are already sliding 6.4% weekly and supply is simultaneously flooding in, that trend probably has further to run.

Lab-grown oval supply in the 1.00 to 1.24ct range grew 127.8%, which is interesting given that lab-grown ovals in this exact carat range also saw an 84.5% price increase. Price going up while supply goes up usually means demand is outpacing new stock. That's a category worth watching closely.

Where comparison shopping pays off most

This is where CaratHunter earns its keep. The price spread between the cheapest and most expensive retailer for equivalent stones is, frankly, absurd in some categories.

Lab-grown round diamonds show an average cross-retailer savings potential of 66.9%. That means the difference between the cheapest and most expensive option for equivalent stones averages nearly 67%. Lab-grown ovals sit at 50.9%. Even natural ovals show a 38.2% average savings opportunity if you're willing to shop around.

And then there are the specific arbitrage signals our system flagged this week. Princess cuts are the standout:

Stone	Price Range	Spread	Retailers
Princess 0.300ct	$178 to $640	260.1%	12
Princess 1.550ct	$9,364 to $20,547	119.4%	4
Princess 0.340ct	$222 to $470	111.4%	4
Princess 0.300ct	$243 to $497	104.5%	5

A 260% spread across 12 retailers for a 0.300ct princess is not a rounding error. Someone is paying $640 for a stone that's available for $178 elsewhere. That's the kind of gap that justifies spending ten minutes on a cross-retailer search before committing to anything.

We also flagged an exceptional value this week: a natural round, G colour, 1.46ct at $890. That's 75% below the median price per carat for its category. At $610 per carat for a natural G colour stone above 1.25ct, that kind of price doesn't stick around. If you're in the market for a natural round in this range, it's worth looking now.

One retailer worth calling out: Temple and Grace is currently carrying an average markup of 113.5% above market. That doesn't mean every stone they sell is overpriced, but it does mean you should be comparing carefully if you're shopping there. On the other end, Lukhi Diamond is averaging 8.9% below market across their 1,372 listings.

What I'm watching next week

Three things have my attention heading into the second week of May.

First, whether the lab-grown rally holds. A 5.6% weekly gain is solid, but lab-grown has teased reversals before. If producers start dumping inventory to capitalise on higher prices, the rally could stall quickly. The supply data will tell us.

Second, natural pear prices. Three pear categories dropped more than 42% this week. That's not normal volatility; it's a category under structural pressure. I want to see whether that corrects or continues.

Third, princess cut arbitrage. The spreads we're seeing (100% to 260% across multiple retailers for identical specs) suggest that some retailers haven't repriced their princess inventory in weeks, or are deliberately maintaining premium positioning. Either way, buyers in this category should be comparing across at least three or four sources before purchasing.

The broader story this week is straightforward. If you're buying natural, the market is moving in your favour, but it may keep moving, so patience could pay off. If you're buying lab-grown, the window of rock bottom pricing may be closing. And regardless of what you're buying, check the cross-retailer comparison before you commit. The price differences right now are too large to leave on the table.