Week 14, 2026

Nearly 3.9 million stones came off the market in week 14, the highest single-week off-market count across the seven weeks I've been tracking this cycle. At the same time, new listings fell to a seven-week low of 1.78 million, down more than 51% from the 3.6 million added in week 13. The result was a meaningful contraction: active inventory dropped 7.7% week on week to 25.6 million stones, and total inventory value fell by roughly $5.6 billion to $85.5 billion. That's a lot of movement in a short window. Whether it signals genuine demand clearing or a broad retailer cull of slow-moving stock, the scale is hard to ignore.

The price picture cuts both ways. The median per-carat figure actually ticked up to $1,020, a 3.3% rise from $987.50 last week, and the median stone price held nearly flat at $1,111.63. So the inventory contraction came with a mild firming of prices, not a blowout. That said, the seven-week trend on per-carat pricing is still down, from $1,340 in week 8 to where we sit now. One week of recovery doesn't reverse six weeks of drift. Natural diamonds softened more sharply than the headline numbers suggest: median natural stone price dropped to $1,530, down 15.5% from $1,811 the prior week, while the lab-grown median fell to $723, down 29.2% from $1,021. Both origins also saw far more stones leave than arrive, with lab-grown exits outnumbering entries by more than two to one.

The cross-retailer spread pulled back to 89.5% from last week's 92.7%, which is a notable easing. A handful of the same stones were listed at wildly different prices across the retailers I track, and that gap has compressed a little. Cross-retailer overlap also edged down fractionally to 47.6%. These are small moves individually, but they're consistent with a market that's consolidating rather than expanding. Lab-grown share dipped very slightly to 64.9% after three weeks of continuous gains from 59% in week 8. One week of marginal retreat from a sustained climb is nothing to read too much into, but worth noting all the same.

The shape movers this week were dramatic at the extremes. Princess cut listings came in at a median of $584, down nearly 47% from $1,100 last week, and emerald cuts fell 34% to $835. Ovals moved the other way, reaching a median of $1,176, up about 7%, while trillions posted the week's most striking gain, from $786 to $986, up 25%. Trillions are a tiny corner of new listings at just 1,004 stones, so that move should be treated cautiously. The oval strength is more meaningful, given 265,000 new listings entered at that price. Rounds remained the dominant shape by volume at 44.5% of new listings, with a median of $849.

Among notable stones added this week, the most expensive was a GIA-certified 31.05ct D Flawless pear natural at $5.24 million, followed by a 38.62ct H Internally Flawless round at $3.18 million. On the lab-grown side, a pair of 47ct and 45ct fancy pink IGI hearts came in at roughly $76,000 and $74,000 respectively, which illustrates just how far per-carat pricing in large lab-growns sits below their natural equivalents.

The off-market surge is the number to watch going into week 15. If clearance slows and new listings recover toward their recent averages, inventory could stabilise or rebuild quickly. If exits remain elevated and fresh supply stays thin, that gentle per-carat price recovery this week could have legs. Buyers who've been patient on natural diamonds in the one to two carat range should keep an eye on whether that median price softening holds or reverses.

Lucy Market Index

Ten numbers I record every snapshot.

Versus Week 13, 2026

Biggest shape movers

Recent trends

How metrics are tracking across the recent window of snapshots.

How the Lucy Market Index has moved

By origin

Top shapes by new listings

Notable stones

Each stone links to its full Carat Hunter listing.