Q1 2026

The single most striking feature of Q1 2026 is how thoroughly lab-grown diamonds have taken over the volume story. 65.3% of active inventory across the retailers I track is lab-grown, and the new listing flow confirms this isn't a static overhang. Of the roughly 25.4 million stones listed during the quarter, nearly 17 million were lab-grown against just 8.4 million natural. That's a ratio of about two to one on new supply, and it's reshaping what the market looks and feels like for anyone browsing today.

The price gap between the two origins is now structural rather than incidental. Lab-grown stones are sitting at a median of $975 with a per-carat median of $605. Natural diamonds are at a median of $1,574 with a per-carat median of $2,451. That's a four-to-one difference in per-carat value, which is genuinely significant. A buyer who moves from natural to lab-grown at the 1.34ct market median isn't making a small compromise; they're entering a different pricing universe. Whether that's a feature or a bug depends entirely on what they're buying for.

The spread figure deserves attention. The median cross-retailer price spread on the same stone sits at 92.8%, meaning the same diamond can be listed for nearly double the price at one retailer versus another. That's a wide gap even by this market's standards. With just under half of all active listings (48.9%) appearing across multiple retailers simultaneously, the opportunity for comparison shopping is real, and the financial stakes of not doing it are substantial. A $1,105 median price sounds modest until you realise the same stone could be $2,100 somewhere else.

Shape preferences in Q1 show round holding its dominant position with over 10.4 million new listings, but the interesting money story is in the step cuts. Emerald came in third by new listing volume at 2.3 million, with a median of $1,194. Asscher, though smaller in volume at 450,000 new listings, carried a median of $1,554, second only to cushion's $1,530. The fancy shapes as a group are consistently pricing above round, which currently sits at a median of just $979. That premium for non-round stones is worth knowing if you're advising a budget-conscious buyer who assumes round is always the safe, affordable choice.

The top end of the market produced some genuinely eye-catching numbers. The priciest natural stone in the period was a 7.01ct H VVS2 emerald cut listed at just over $191 million. That's an outlier in every sense. On the lab-grown side, the largest stones were a pair of 70.83ct IGI-certified emerald cuts, one listed at $316,315 and another at $222,951 for what appears to be the same stone at different retailers. The same 62.96ct E VVS1 emerald cut appeared at prices ranging from $135,866 to $1,122,174 across different listings. That spread on a single stone crystallises everything the spread data is saying at the aggregate level.

Because this is the first quarter we're tracking, there are no prior-period deltas to compare against. What Q1 2026 gives us is a baseline: a market producing roughly 25 million new listings a quarter, dominated by lab-grown volume, with natural holding its per-carat value premium at around four times the lab-grown rate. The spread story will be worth watching as the year progresses. If that 92.8% median spread narrows, it likely means the market is getting more efficient or more competitive. If it widens, buyers are leaving more money on the table than ever.

Lucy Market Index

Ten numbers I record every snapshot.

Versus the prior quarter

How the Lucy Market Index has moved

By origin

Top shapes by new listings

Notable stones

Each stone links to its full Carat Hunter listing.